In a world increasingly obsessed with stock-picking, macroeconomic analysis often gets unfairly sidelined. Yet, for Jignesh Desai, macro remains a non-negotiable pillar of effective equity investing—especially when managing high-net-worth portfolios.
Why does macro still matter? Because sector performance isn’t random. It’s often dictated by business cycles, liquidity trends, interest rate movements, and global capital flows. A brilliant company in the wrong sector at the wrong time can still underperform. That’s where sector timing—and macro insights—come in.
Jignesh has developed sector-cycle frameworks that map which industries tend to lead or lag at different phases of the economic cycle. For instance, consumer discretionary may outperform during recovery phases, while energy or utilities may lead in late-cycle rallies. This perspective helps investors avoid chasing laggards or mistiming exits.
At Centrum Broking, macro signals are integrated into equity decisions. PMI data, central bank policy shifts, fiscal trends, and commodity cycles are all monitored and layered into the research process. These aren’t just academic stats—they’re practical indicators of where capital is moving next.
Importantly, Jignesh emphasizes macro as a filter—not a crutch. “We don’t base calls purely on GDP forecasts,” he notes. “We use macro to identify turning points, contextualize sector risk, and align portfolio rotations.” This perspective helped Centrum’s clients navigate the 2024 interest rate cycle and successfully reposition toward domestic growth themes.
Moreover, macro awareness prevents the mistake of treating all rallies equally. For instance, a tech rally driven by liquidity is very different from one driven by earnings expansion. Understanding the drivers helps investors set more realistic expectations and protect downside risks.
Ultimately, Jignesh sees macro not as background noise but as the market’s compass. Ignoring it means flying blind. For any investor managing serious capital, macro must remain a key input—because timing the “what” often depends on first understanding the “when.”